July 10, 2024

Opportunitas Advisors

July 10, 2024

Opportunitas Advisors

David Bluestone on Radar Opportunitas

A New Poll by ClearPath Strategies Shows  the Opposition is Leading in the Venezuelan Presidential Elections.

In the first English episode of “Radar Opportunitas”, we gained valuable insights from David Bluestone, founder of Clearpath Strategies, regarding the upcoming Venezuelan presidential elections. With over 15 years of experience in strategic consulting and public opinion research, Bluestone shared his findings from a comprehensive poll conducted by ClearPath, highlighting a significant shift in the Venezuelan political landscape and analyzing the support for Edmundo González in the upcoming Venezuelan elections.

ClearPath’s latest survey reveals Edmundo González has a solid lead

The latest research reveals a significant 21-point lead for opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia over Nicolás Maduro. Conducted through face-to-face interviews, which are considered the gold standard in political research, the survey involved 1,500 respondents, offering a solid and reliable perspective on the current voter sentiment.

One of the key findings from the poll is the high level of voter enthusiasm. Over two-thirds of the respondents indicated they are very likely to vote, with 85% of likely voters indicating they have already made a decision. This strong voter engagement suggests a determined electorate, eager to participate in the democratic process despite potential challenges.

What is driving the opposition vote?

Several factors contribute to the opposition’s strong performance in the poll. Edmundo Gonzalez has effectively consolidated support among opposition voters, driven by a widespread desire for change. The poll shows minimal support for minor party candidates, indicating a unified opposition. Additionally, Maria Corina’s endorsement has significantly increased Gonzalez’s appeal, attracting new voters who do not traditionally identify with the opposition.

Challenges and election dynamics

Despite the promising outlook and expectations of the opposition, the election is not without its challenges. Government intimidation and arbitrary changes to electoral conditions remain significant obstacles. However, the poll reveals that these tactics have not dampened voter enthusiasm. A substantial portion of the electorate is aware of these challenges, yet the commitment to vote remains strong, with 67% of Venezuelans stating that they are very likely to vote.

Implications for the international community

This electoral process and its potential outcomes have captured the attention not only of Venezuelans but also of the Latin American region and the international community. The survey also asked respondents about the likelihood of migrating if Nicolás Maduro won, and one-fifth, almost 20%, indicated that it is very likely they would migrate. Additionally, on top of that percentage, 35% indicated that it is very likely they would migrate within the next three months after the election. Therefore, the implications of this election extend beyond Venezuela, potentially affecting regional dynamics and international relations.

Clearpath Strategies’ latest poll provides a compelling view of the current political climate in Venezuela. Edmundo Gonzalez’s substantial lead and the high level of voter engagement signal a potential turning point in the country’s political landscape. As the July 28th election approaches, these insights will be crucial in understanding the evolving dynamics and preparing for the possible outcomes. Stay tuned to “Radar Opportunitas” for more updates and in-depth analysis as the election day draws near.

To learn more about these topics and to hear our guest’s opinion in detail, listen to the episode of Radar Opportunitas available at the following link

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